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How Many?

wstphal

wstphal

working in the Gulag
OK, I was doing Punnett squares last night & figured out that one of the snakes I want to produce will be 1/16 of the "expected" results from the square. Realistically, how many do I need to hatch to get my 1/16th? I guess what I am asking is how many pairs with the right genes do I need to breed & how many hatchlings is that going to result in?
 
Well in reality you could breed snakes for the rest of your life and never get a 1/16. Or you might get 16 of them in your first batch.

If we say that an average clutch is around 16 eggs. Statistically you will get one out of each clutch. With the law of averages, that is the way it should work. It may, or may not. No one can say. The more eggs you have the better the odds that you will get what you want.

Sorry I can’t be more definitive.
 
What he said. You can hatch millions of babies from the same parents and never get one. 1 in 16 is about a 6% chance of getting what you want, but that's the fun about breeding. You never really know what exactly will come out of your eggs until they hatch. All you gotta do is just have hopeful thinking, positive attitudes, and have fun!

Just curious, what's the 1 in 16 that you are hoping to make?
 
Anery + Charcoal + Diffused is what I am aiming at. I can easily get Pewter & Granite. That cross gives me all diffuseds 100% het for anery & charcoal. Breeding 2 of those gives me this big mess in the Punnett square, all diffused but 9 of them normal diffuseds with hets, and then some Granites & Pewters & Goddess willing, 1 of the target combo.

I realize I could try over & over. But somebody's gotta know roughly how many they need to hatch to get their 1/16. Is it 30ish eggs, 50ish, 70ish or what? So I'm hoping someone with lots of experience will tell me what they have seen.
 
It really all depends. It's a luck of the draw every time. This year, 4 out of 8 morphs from my one clutch of 10 eggs were 1/16.
This is what was expected:

1 / 16 Hypo
3 / 16 Anery
3 / 16 Amel
3 / 16 Normal
1 / 16 Ghost
3 / 16 Snow
1 / 16 Hypo Amel
1 / 16 Coral Snow

This is what I got -
1 Normal
1 Hypo
1 Ghost
2 Amels (pretty sure one was a Hypo Amel)
2 Anerys
3 Snows (Pretty sure one was a Hypo Snow)

Now, I could have also hit really bad odds and gotten all normals. That's why the big breeders have multiple pairs of the projects they're working on in case one clutch doesn't hit the odds.


Oh, and at least you don't have this. One of my projects coming up has a 1/1,024 of hitting the odds. :headbang:
 
I wouldn't even TRY to get a 1/1024 snake! The way I figure it, that means needing to hatch over a thousand, or somewhere around 50+ clutches! Nah, I'll stick with no more than triples so that I am not looking at worse than 1/16!
 
Rich said somewhere that he figured the best way to get that one in a thousand snake was to breed one thousand snakes, but even then you have no guarantee.
 
wade said:
Rich said somewhere that he figured the best way to get that one in a thousand snake was to breed one thousand snakes, but even then you have no guarantee.
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Yeah, I remember seeing that somewhere. Which is why I never intend to take on projects that involve 1/1024 odds. I am just envisioning housing & feeding over a thousand hatchlings. The mind boggles.

Nah, I'll stick to the plans I have, which involve no worse than 1/16 or 1/32. I can't imagine thawing out 200 pinkies a day!
 
wstphal said:
Robbie, what on earth are you doing that involves 9 recessive genes?!
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he's trying to win the herp lottery, that's what he's doing. A snake like that would probably put him into a comfortable retirement for the rest of his days, he and Rich could scan the beach for metal!
 
RobbiesCornField said:
True! But I'm gonna have a heck of a time sorting it out from the Snows, Blizzards, Avalanches, and Whiteouts. :nyah: LOL That's even IF I hit the astronomical odds!
Click to expand...

Oh trust me, you will know it if you get one... it will be the last thing you ever see. (X_X) <-- "OMG I FINALLY GOT ONE!!"
 
If it were me I'd end up with the one in a thousand hatch to either have a rogue kingsnake attack shortly after I figured it out OR it would be the one snake my wife decided to help me "sale" :). Best of luck! That's the cool thing about corn snake genetics the sky seems to really be the limit.
 
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